Collapsing rates and no post-Chinese New Year pick-up paint a sad story for the global air freight market – sources even suggesting it marks ‘the end of globalisation as we know it’.

Last week’s reported TAC Index spot rates for Shanghai to the US were $2.58.

A forwarding source told The Loadstar the market had been “quiet” since Chinese New Year, noting that while this was “normal”, there had been no sign of the usual strong March pick-up.

Indeed, the forwarder said they expected the state of play to remain in the slump that started in the final quarter of 2022, amid decreasing demand for Chinese products from the west, which was potentially linked to worsening political relations.

Hong Kong freight forwarder Nick Coverdale said the “rate war” was already heating up in the weakened market. He cited rates offered by Chinese carriers as low as $2.55/kg to Los Angeles and Chicago and $2.85 to New York.

Meanwhile, Flexport told customers today that across China “demand is low”. However in northern China, it said, there was “an upward trend”, while in the south the opposite was true. It added: “Demand ex-South-east Asia overall remains low, with capacity widely available. The Thailand export market is picking up a bit this week, but demand is generally still on the softer side.”

Full-freighter services are expected to bear the brunt of the pain, with a drop in container rates leading to a post-pandemic modal shift to ocean. Meanwhile, the resumption of almost all passenger flights and resultant incoming belly capacity is exacerbating excess capacity.

Ligentia confirmed that China-North Europe exports remained “relatively weak”, and some have suggested the decline in demand for Chinese goods could see cargo value fall 10%.

The source said while “rate wars” and drops in trade were nothing new, these signs, twinned with the shifting geopolitical landscape, were evidence of the emergence of a “very different” model of international trade, in which “the real globalisation” had died.

But the gloom has not overshadowed Cathay Pacific’s new drive for a return to a strong business. Last week, it announced a rebrand from Cathay Pacific Cargo to Cathay Cargo.

Group CEO Ronald Lam said the move was part of efforts to “align” its cargo services with its “master brand” and reflected the substantive cargo investments it had been making in Hong Kong and the Greater Bay Area.

The hastened fracturing of China-US relations is prompting a very real move away from the ...

ZERO HEDGE reports: China’s Ministry of Finance has instructed state-owned enterprises to phase out contracts with ...

Lufthansa Cargo is betting on China’s economy growing and is upping its freighter capacity to ...

This is an interesting look at the land-sea corridor between south-east Asia and China. Five ...

More than one-third of logistics companies will increase their prices this year, owing to high ...

ZERO HEDGE writes: (By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist) The exact shape of China’s ...

Things are looking up, in China at least

Europe is well-positioned to nearshore its entire battery production  by 2027, ending reliance on China ...

“The first half looks bleak,” noted one air freight forwarder this week. “Anyone that said ...

'The real shit starts today', says new guy in the hot seat at Flexport

Shippers want stability and service, not rock-bottom freight rates

Kuehne + Nagel now an airfreight market leader, but had a poor Q4

'Cap-in-hand' carriers face shipper anger after the tables turn

Party definitely over for ocean carriers, despite some strong numbers

NYK Line sells 'costly' Nippon Cargo Airlines to ANA

Mixed views on cargo shift from US west coast ports to the east

Sourcing shift away from China by the west is happening – but slowly

Geodis to CMA CGM – here's the thing

Transpac shippers struggle to trust carriers now 'learning from their mistakes'

EXCLUSIVE: Top Kuehne + Nagel SVP jumps ship

WiseTech pricing storm shows no sign of abating as SMEs weigh in

Yusen Logistics continues M&A spree with US 3PL Taylored Services

EXCLUSIVE: Kuehne + Nagel – another top SVP gone

Kuehne + Nagel akin to DSV – 'Yesterday, all my troubles seemed so far away...'

Cargo piles up as logistics services are hit by Pakistan forex crisis